I do one article for Wired per year. My most recent published writings are listed herein chronological order. The book is also a bestseller in China, and I spend a lot of time visiting China to speak about the inevitable and to see what the Chinese have planned for our future.
Nope; he won me over. The book feels a bit fussy, full of jargon, and over-complex. The rest is detail but the details do seem to matter. A strong recommendation from me. Stop messing around and focus on something hard. A superb book about creativity and the effort involved.
Full of good-yet-unusual ideas. You can unsubscribe at any time Email Address There is a fine line between stupid and clever Recently a loyal reader emailed me with a disarmingly simple question: What seems a narrow topic has broader implications.
The argument is plausible, intuitive, and wrong — both in theory and when tested with hindsight against historical market data. A more realistic description of the stock market is that it follows a random walk with an upward drift.
The random walk implies that we cannot expect prices to tend back towards some average. From any particular point there is no way to say in which direction they will lurch next. The upward drift — the simple fact that share prices tend to rise over time — suggests that we should invest everything we plan to invest at the earliest opportunity.
Drip-feeding delays profitable investment, and so costs money. If theory is unkind to the cost-averaging principle, what about the historical evidence? We can ask, with hindsight, when investors with a large lump sum would have done better to drip it gradually into the market over the course of a year.
The answer is unsurprising: Cost averaging worked well in the last bear market, but, with access to that kind of hindsight, an even better strategy in a bear market is to wait until it is over.
Cost averaging, then, is wrong in theory and has not usually worked in practice. It may, nevertheless, be excellent advice. The simplest point in favour of drip-feeding is that it reflects the situation of a typical salaried investor. The magic may be illusory, but the benefits of regular investment are not.
Many of the empirical tests of cost averaging begin from the premise that an investor is sitting on some vast pile of cash, pondering whether to invest gradually or all at once.
That is a pleasant dream to consider, and if you find yourself with a million dollars in your pocket then by all means invest promptly. If you are nervous about risk, academic research suggests that drip feeding is not the most efficient way to reduce your risk.
Better to keep a small portion of your wealth out of the stock market entirely. But efficiency is a treacherous goal for an ordinary investor. The strongest argument in favour of cost averaging is simply to ask ourselves what we are likely to do instead.
New Student Orientation will introduce you to the traditions, expectations, programs and services of WVSU and assist you in selecting your first semester class schedule. Hand this checklist in with the final draft of your Extended Essay. Criteria A -- The Research Question __My research question is clearly and precisely stated in the early part of the essay. __My research question is sharply focused and not a broad generalization. __My research question lends itself. An extended essay in economics is a formal essay, so students must be sure to adopt one of the common standards of presentation of research essays. Interpreting the assessment criteria Criterion A: research question.
The answer is not pretty.A final Extended Essay checklist for teachers By Alexis Mamaux Friday, February 6, Advice & Tips for IB Teachers, History, IBDP Teacher Blogs No tags 0 Now that we are in February, those of us who have students taking exams in May are in most cases trying to finish up the Extended Essay .
Dec 26, · In , many countries experienced the harsh realities of the "El Nino" effect. This was the time when there was a drastic change in the weather system and many countries either faced severe droughts or floods.
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This is an Extended Essay in Economics written as part of my IB Diploma Program. It received 26 marks out of a possible 36, giving it a high grade B. Essay Writing Checklist. Extended Essay Friendship Essay Global Warming History Essay Holiday Essay.
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There is a fine line between stupid and clever. Recently a loyal reader emailed me with a disarmingly simple question: is it better to invest small amounts every month, or in a large lump sum?